21th German Federal Election 2025 (23.2./8.9.) – victory potential

2025 compared to 2021 – according to Social Reality:

1. (2.) 35%: Union ***
2.(2.) 25%: SPD **
3. (3RD) 15%: Greens (BGD)*
4th (5th) 10%: AfD *****
5th (4th) 10% FDP ****
5th (5th) 5%: Left ******
Others: 5%

2030 compared to 2021 – by Future(s) Viability

1. (3rd) 25%: Greens (BGD)*
2.(1.) 15%: SPD **
3.(2.) 15%: Union ***
4. 20%: FDP ****
5. 10%: AfD *****
6. 5%: Left ******
Others: 10%

* Annalena Baerbock – Green
** Olaf Scholz – Social Democratic Party of Germany
*** Friedrich Merz – Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU)
**** Christian Lindner – Free Democratic Party
***** Alice Weidel & Tino Chrupalla – Alternative for Germany
****** Janine Wissler & Dietmar Bartsch – Die Linken

1. Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)
2. Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)
3. Alliance 90/The Greens (BGD)
4. Free Democratic Party (FDP)
5. Alternative for Germany (AfD)
6. Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)

200X – after Future(s) History:

1. Olad Scholz (SPD) – 40%
2. Friedrich Merz (CDU) – 30%
3. Robert Habeck (BGD)
4. Patrick Lindner (FDP)
5. Germany (AfD)
6. Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)

Forward-looking and future-oriented policies depend either on the personality of the candidates or the power base of the parties.

There are no personality-oriented leadership authorities in Germany, so the future potential depends on the parties. Donald Trump (Republican), Waldimir Putin, Kim Jong-un to Xi Jinping are ‘classic’ leader personalities. Like the German politicians, Kamala Harris from the Democrats is also dependent on the strength of her party.